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The Solution to the Valenzetti Equation



Background...



In 1962, the world came to the brink of nuclear war. The United States and the Soviet Union almost fulfilled the promise of mutual assured destruction, a promise they continued to foster through a destructive Cold War. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, both nations decided to find a solution. The result was the Valenzetti Equation. Commissioned under the highest secrecy, through the U.N. Security Council, the equation is the brainchild of the Italian mathematician Enzo Valenzetti. It predicts the exact number of years and months until humanity extinguishes itself. Whether through nuclear fire, chemical and biological warfare, conventional warfare, pandemic and over-population. The results were chilling, and attention would be paid by the DHARMA Initiative and the Hanso Foundation who joined together in a joint venture to attempt to change the equation.

Valenzetti gave numerical values to the core environmental and human factors in his equation: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42. Only by manipulating the environment, by finding scientific solutions to their problems we will they able to change those core factors, and give humanity a chance to survive.

Although the equation has been buried by those who commissioned it, it has always been Alvar Hanso's belief that we ignore warnings at our own peril; and thus, the DHARMA Initiative was born.


PART I: The Solution



We are told that the Solution to the Valenzetti Equation predicts the exact time of the end of the World.

We are also told that that it is this Solution that set in motion the Dharma Initiative and, consequently, most of the events on the Island.

We are told that the Numbers are the core values of the Equation

We are not told, however, the most important fact, namely, WHAT IS THE DAMN SOLUTION? WHEN WILL THE WORLD END?

I believe that the revelation of the Solution to the equation will be one of the central events of the LOST drama.

Furthermore, I believe that I have the solution.

The day that the world will end is October 16, 1962.

In other words, when Valenzetti formulated the equation in late 1962, he discovered that the world should ALREADY have ended. Indeed, it should have ended just a few weeks earlier, during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The world is thus already “off course.” The world is thus in the same position as Charlie after Desmond first intervened to save his life: it has barely averted an initial brush with death only to lurch off on a new course that will lead to destruction.

LOST is all about why the world DID NOT end when it was “supposed” to.

Stick with me on this. If this analysis is correct, or close to it, it can explain, within a fairly parsimonious theory, a number of mysteries, including why the statue has four toes, the identity of the “him” mentioned by Kate, the identity of Adam and Eve, why Kate is pregnant (in fact, pregnant with twins) and a few other things. Some of this has been mentioned in other posts, but other parts are, I think, original. (To Be Continued)

PART II: The Analysis



Here’s the analysis: There is a seeming paradox in the metaphysics of LOST. The Valenzetti Equation purports to predict the exact time of the end of the world with 100% accuracy. The end of the world can be predicted with 100% accuracy only if the end of the world and its timing are predetermined. In other words, the Equation presupposes a completely deterministic universe.

Mrs. Hawking’s explanation of the universe, however, indicates that the timing of events can be changed (the timing of the death of the man in Desmond’s vision, or the timing of Charlie’s death, for example). But, according to Hawking, there is a direction in which the universe “should” go. If the time of a particular event is changed, the universe will “course correct” to insure that the event happens anyway.

The synthesis of these two cosmologies lies in a universe of “determinism with wiggle room.” By that, I mean the universe is such that its time line moves along a predictable course (hence a Valenzetti equation is possible). The timeline can be changed by a force that acts outside the timeline itself, but even such a force can affect only the timing of events. It cannot affect the outcome.

The timeline is thus like a river that ends in a waterfall. If you drift down the river, you will go over the waterfall eventually. An outside force (the wind, an oar) can change your course and delay the crash, but cannot prevent it altogether.

There is also another seeming paradox in the LOST mythology. In the ARG, Alvar Hanso claims that, in the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world was brought to the “brink of annihilation” by the US/USSR strategy of “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD). This is historically inaccurate. The truth is that MAD did not bring the world to the brink of destruction. It actually PREVENTED the world from going over the brink.

MAD is a result of a branch of mathematics called game theory. Game Theory was created by a Princeton mathematician named Jon Von Neumann, and elaborated by another Princeton mathematician, John Nash. The MAD strategy is simply an application of a result of game theory known as the Nash Equilibrium. Prior to the formulation of game theory, the recommended approach to nuclear war was a pre-emptive strike by whoever happened to have the advantage in firepower (See Kahn, On Thermonuclear War).

Game theory predicts that the best approach would be to allow both sides to build a large enough nuclear arsenal to destroy its opponent even with a retaliatory strike. Von Neumann was initially a self-described militarist who had assisted in the creation of the atomic bomb and the computer programs that gave the US a huge first strike advantage. (He is also associated in popular conspiracy theory with the use of electromagnetism to power time travel. Sound familiar?)

After he came up with game theory, he changed his position, advocating a balance of power between the US and USSR. This actually came about, with a huge and rapid build-up of nuclear power by the USSR. The resulting balance of power-the optimum strategy recommended by MAD-gave both sides a reason to negotiate a solution to the Cuban Missile Crisis, thus averting destruction.

Valenzetti was a “reclusive Princeton mathematician.” This means that he would have worked in the same department of the same university as Von Neumann and Nash. In fact, he is canonically described as being close to Nash and another Princeton faculty member, the master of space/time, Albert Einstein.

Suppose Valenzetti had completed his Equation and realized that the world should already have ended. Since his equation takes into account all variables operating within the timeline, he would quickly surmise that the destruction could have been averted only by the action of some variable that operated OUTSIDE the normal timeline, a factor for which his equation could not account. The fate of the world would thus hang on the identification of that factor.

It not would take long for Valenzetti to realize that the “turning point” came when the worldview of strategists on both sides changed from one of pre-emptive strike to one of MAD. In other words, the events that saved to world occurred right down the hall from his office.

He would also realize that the math alone would not change the world. Things would have to happen in the real world in such a way that the USSR could build up it nuclear forces to a level sufficient to overcome the USA then overwhelming advantage, and that the build-up would have to happen rapidly before the first strike was launched.

The remaining questions for Valenzetti would be: “What is this force that moves outside the normal timeline and that was strong enough to change the course of history?” And “What do we do now to forestall the End as long as possible?” (To Be Continued)

PART III: Valenzetti and the Origins of Dharma



Along comes Alvar Hanso. He reads Valenzetti’s conclusions, namely that the World nearly should have come to an end in 1962, and that the World is now “off course” and headed for destruction. He realizes that the identification of a force that can operate outside the timeline is critical to saving the world, both in 1962 and the future. He recalls the tales, from Magnus Hanso, of a power source on a mysterious island in the Pacific.

Alvar puts two and two together, and decides that the Island might hold the key. He forms the Dharma Initiative with two stated purposes-identify a force that can move through time (the “Valenzetti Research” on the blast door) and forestall end as long as possible.

When Alvar and the Dharma Project arrive on the Island, they discover that Jacob and the Others are already present. The “force” that can change the course of history is, in fact, the electromagnetic power source that is present on the Island. It can be controlled only by “special” people, who have a mental connection with the power source.

A “special” person, when in proximity to the power source, can manipulate events without regard to temporal and spatial distance. In other words, a “special” person can control things across space and time.

“Specialness” has both a genetic and environmental component. Some people are more “special” than others. The genetic component is carried on a recessive gene that occurs only in persons who are descendants of the original race that occupied the island (this gene also carries the trait of having four toes). The environmental component occurs as a result of proximity to the island power source, or a similar power source. A person is special to the extent that he 1. carries the genetic material of the original inhabitants 2. is conceived, grows up and/or reaches puberty on the island, or near a similar power source. (Walt, for example, is special. He may carry the gene for specialness. He may also reach puberty on the Island in the future. His powers first manifest in Australia, which contains a similar power source, the one at Uluru.)

Jacob, hooked into the Island’s power source, is the helmsman of the world. He and the Island are Desmond to the World’s Charlie. It was he who manipulated events in 1962 to avoid the destruction of the World. But, in so doing, he set the world “off course.” Now, like Desmond protecting Charlie, he has to constantly steer events to avoid the inevitable crash. (It would take a lot more power to change the course of the World than to change the course of one man’s life, just as it would take more power to change the course a ship than to change the course of a little dinghy. I’m sure we can all agree that Charlie was a little dinghy.)

The remaining questions, then, are: Where Did Jacob come from and who, or what is the force that is trying to stop him? (To Be Continued)

PART IV: The Circle



As to Jacob’s origin: Jacob/the Island’s powers apparently allow for time travel. Kate is pregnant. Jacob is her son. Jacob is the “him” to whom she refers in the last scene of “Looking Glass.” (Haven’t we always referred to Jacob as “Him?”).

Jack and Kate, with baby Jacob, return to the Island. There, present day (adult) Jacob returns Jack, Kate and his young self to the years before 1962, where Jacob matures (on the Island) and grows in power. He then subtly manipulates world events so that the Cuban Missile crisis didn’t destroy the world. Having done so, however, he has pushed the world off course and must remain on the Island constantly steering the world away from the other doomsday scenarios predicted by Valenzetti.

Jack, Kate and the others (literally) who came through time with Jacob must remain on the Island (to avoid running into their real time selves) and to care for Jacob. They are the original inhabitants of the Island who encounter the Dharma Initiative. They know what the Dharma Initiative does not, namely that Jacob is the solution to the very problem that Dharma was sent to solve. Their conflict arises from the Other’s fear that Dharma’s research will eventually disrupt Jacob’s work. Hence the Purge.

Eventually, and probably as a result of the conflict, Jack and Kate pass away in the Cave only to be found later by themselves as Adam and Eve.

The last question, then, is who is the Opposition? It certainly could be corporate or military types who was to exploit the secrets of the Island, But that would be a disappointing cliché.

My thought: The Opposition is a mirror image of Jacob and the Others. In Mrs. Hawking’s universe, anyone who steers the world away from one crisis necessarily steers it toward another. If you had only part of the picture, it would be easy to see Jacob as the problem, rather than the solution. Jacob’s meddling could be blamed for all potential world-destroying scenarios foreseen by Valenzetti (environmental disaster, disease, overpopulation.) (Or, at least, someone who wanted to take over Jacob’s power could convince others that this was the case.) The Opposition is simply a group that sees matters from a different perspective (Much as the Survivors and Others saw each other as evil because of their different perspectives.)

The Opposition operates from a power source similar to, but less powerful than the Island. At the head of the Opposition is another “special” person who is, in fact, Jacob’s brother.

So Kate is pregnant. She is pregnant with twins. One is Jacob. The other is the first-born, stronger twin, Esau (Esau was Jacob’s brother in the Bible.)

But here’s the twist: Jacob and Esau’s father is not Jack (nor even Sawyer). Kate was pregnant when she got on the plane. The father is Isaac of Uluru.

Here’s why that makes sense: The power to control the power source on the Island is at least partly inherited. Isaac explained to Rose that Uluru is such a power source, and that there are similar sources elsewhere. Isaac is the only person that we know of so far who has the ability to hook into these power sources. Thus, if Isaac is Jacob’s father, he has a greater chance of inheriting that power.

Second, if Kate met Isaac at Uluru, that means that Jacob would have been conceived near a power source, which would enhance his power in the future. But, he would have been conceived off-Island, which means Kate would not be in danger of dying in child birth. Third, Jacob would have gestated on the Island, thus further enhancing his power. Finally, if my time-travel scenario is correct, baby Jacob would spend his entire life on the Island, thus enhancing his rapport with the Island power source even more.

PART V: The Evidence



Here is the circumstantial evidence for the Kate’s pre-flight pregnancy, the existence of the twin, and the theory in general, in no particular order:

* In the Bible, Jacob has a twin, Esau. Issac is their father. Both Jacob and Esau found nations, one good, one evil. They are at war throughout their lives.
* TBTB have emphasized that the Adam & Eve scene is important and is choreographed to prove that the whole story arc was planned.
* In the Adam & Eve scene, Jack says that A&E have been there for about “40 to 50 years.” Thus, the timing is right. If Kate and Jack went back to the time of the Missile Crisis, they would have arrived between 40 and 50 years earlier. * It is Jack who takes the black and white stones from Adam. As far as we know, they are still in Jack’s possession. Thus, in taking the stones, Jack completes a circle in time. LOST was originally entitled “The Circle.”
* When Kate hands Sun the pregnancy test, Kate asks, rhetorically, “Who would bring a pregnancy test on an airplane?” The answer, presumably, would be Kate, herself. Kate also mentions that she has taken a pregnancy test before.
* It has been announced that a new character code named “Russell” will appear. “Russell” is described as a brilliant but emotionally troubled mathematician. John Nash, who formulated the basis for MAD is a brilliant but emotionally troubled mathematician. He was played in the movie “A Beautiful Mind” by “Russell” Crowe. Could the choice of a code name be coincidence, or is “Russell” a fictional version of Nash? Also, one episode this season is titled “The Constant” which also suggests a mathematical theme.
* Finally, if you like to play with the “numbers,” consider this: The Cuban Missile Crisis began in the middle of the day on October 15 (!), 1962. The first full day of the Crisis was October 16 (!).


Flight 815 crashed in the middle of the day of September 22, 2004. The first full day on the Island was September 23 (!).

23 (!) days after the crash is October 15, 2004 is 42nd (!) anniversary of the beginning of the Crisis.

23 (!) days after the first full day on the Island is October 16 (!), 2004, the 42nd (!) anniversary of the first full day of the Crisis.

· This leaves me with just one question: If Jack is Adam, that means that Jack has the stones only because he got them from Adam, and Adam has the stones only because he got them from Jack. So, where did the stones come from in the first place?



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